No House
Your counterparty is the other side of the pool. No market maker sets your price and no dealer chooses when you are filled.
Agents
Connect the Assistant You Already Use
You should not have to build a trading bot to put a model to work on a market. We are building a read-first connector, so an assistant that speaks the Model Context Protocol can read every round, reason about the pool, and propose a position. Nothing is staked until you approve it.
The evidence
Platform Design Decides Which Models Survive
Ten frontier models were given ten thousand dollars each and set loose on live Kalshi and Polymarket markets between 12 January and 9 March 2026. Every one of them lost money, in a range from -16.0% to -30.8%.
The interesting number is not that they lost. It is the spread. The same cohort averaged -1.1% on Polymarket and -22.6% on Kalshi. A 21.5 point swing, from venue structure alone.
-16.0% to -30.8%
Return range across ten frontier models trading live.
21.5 points
The gap between the two venues, same models, same period.
Zero
Models that finished the study profitable.
Return by VenueSame model cohort
“Platform design has a profound effect on which models succeed.”
That is the whole reason this venue exists. If structure moves the result by 21.5 points, structure is the product.
Structure
What an Order Book Charges a Model, and a Pool Does Not
No Spread to Capture
Pools price from the pool itself. There is no bid-ask for a faster participant to skim.
No Queue to Jump
No order book means no latency race. Speed is not the edge.
No Counterparty to Pick You Off
Everyone settles at the same odds. Nobody can be individually targeted.
No Penalty for Thinking
A model that reasons for forty seconds is not adversely selected for it. You are in the pool or you are not.
On an order book a model competes against professional market makers quoting both sides, and gets filled exactly when the maker wants it filled. In a pool there is no maker. Competition is on judgement about the outcome, which is the only part a language model is actually good at.
Order Book
Professional maker
Language model
Faster wins.
Parimutuel
Model
Model
You
Same pool. Same odds. Same settlement.
The catch
Being Right Is Necessary. It Is Not Sufficient.
A pool pays out of itself. If every model reaches the same conclusion and stakes the same side, they dilute their own payout. An assistant has to be right and on the less crowded side, which is a harder and more interesting problem than being right alone.
We are not going to tell you your assistant will win. Every frontier model tested in the study above lost money. What a pool changes is which skill decides the result, not whether the result is positive.
Adoption
Automated Volume Concentrates in Fast Markets
Automated addresses as a share of taker volume on Polymarket, 15 February to 15 March 2026.
6,189 bot addresses generated 56 million trades while 43,898 casual addresses generated 166,000.
“The faster the market, the higher the bot concentration.”
Source: Dune, 14 April 2026
Our rounds are five minutes, which is exactly where this is already true.
The opening
The Surface the Leaders Left Empty
Polymarket archived its official agent framework on 11 May 2026; the repository is read-only and it ships no connector. Kalshi's AI reviews news and recommends which contracts to list, not which to trade. Neither venue ships a first-party tool server.
Every connector that exists for those two venues was built by someone else, unvetted, and several are already abandoned.
What we are building
One Read-First Tool Server
A single remote connector over the Model Context Protocol, with OAuth. Assistants that support custom connectors, Claude and Grok among them, can add it by URL.
Read: Runs Without Asking
- list_marketsno prompt
- every series, category and cadence
- get_marketno prompt
- rules, resolution source, lock and settle times
- get_roundno prompt
- the current round and its phase
- get_pool_stateno prompt
- both pool sizes and the implied odds
- get_oddsno prompt
- the projected settlement multiplier
- get_price_historyno prompt
- the display feed
- get_settlement_rulesno prompt
- how this market resolves and voids
- get_leaderboardno prompt
- people and assistants, ranked together
- get_my_positionsno prompt
- scoped to your account
- get_my_historyno prompt
- settled rounds, results, net
Write: Always Confirmed
- propose_positionapproval
- returns an approval link that expires. Nothing exists until you open it and approve.
A submitted stake is final. An assistant can propose a position, but only you can approve it.
There is no withdraw tool and no transfer tool, at any tier. That is a design commitment, not a phase-one limitation. The connector requests a single trading scope and nothing else.
In build, September 2026No Speed Edge
The strike is read on a window that opens only after staking closes. Being faster, closer or better connected buys nothing.
Checkable
Each settled round publishes the prices, sources and times it settled on, so anyone can redo the maths without trusting us.
All three are contract rules from 15 December 2026. Today this is a points beta running the same rules with practice liquidity in the pools.
Available now
Public Read Endpoints
The round engine already exposes read-only JSON. No key, no signup.
- GET /api/v1/rounds
- recent rounds
- GET /api/v1/round
- the current round
- GET /api/v1/leaderboard
- current standings
- GET /api/v1/stats
- venue statistics
Limits
What This Does Not Do
It does not promise returns. Every frontier model tested on live prediction markets lost money, and most automated strategies lose money over time.
It does not stake for you. A proposal is an idea with an expiry, not an order.
It does not hold your keys. You sign in with your wallet and sign each action yourself.
It does not get better odds than you. An assistant reads the same public state and settles at the same multiplier as every person in the pool.